A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
